Why is There Load Shedding in South Africa?
By PENNY SWIFT
Eskom Says Load Shedding Is Not Acceptable
At the same briefing, the Eskom COO, Jan Oberholzer, admitted that every day of load shedding in South Africa is “unacceptable”. It’s that simple! But he maintains that there is no other option because they need to do long-term maintenance to be able to supply reliable power.
Eskom’s Bad Assessments to Blame For Load Shedding
Research out of the University of the Free State in Bloemfontein warns that a main factor that causes load shedding is “historical bad assessments” that have been made by Eskom.
They also warn that the reserve margin in electricity is likely to continue on a downward trend until there is a substantial power plant that can accommodate growing demand. Will that happen? And on another track, do we want it to happen?
The 2016 academic paper by postgraduate students from the University provides some insight into load shedding. Titled The Impact of Load Shedding on the Construction Industry in South Africa by Drian Coetzee and Mart-Mari Els, it was presented at a conference in Cape Town that explored emerging trends in construction organisational practices and the project management knowledge area.
That was five years ago, and Eskom was already apologizing to the South African public for the inconvenience caused by load shedding. They had already admitted they didn’t have sufficient capacity to meet demand.
In essence, load shedding is Eskom’s strategy to share available electricity energy among all its customers. It’s the only means they have of keeping their fossil fuel system stable.
While this research focuses on the construction industry, its broad conclusions are relevant to all of us.
The study, which only deals with electricity generated by coal, found three dimensions to the electricity problem facing South Africa.
- Capacity problem
- Supply problem
- Reserve margin problem
Capacity Problem
The cause of this is largely due to the difference between operational or connected generating capacity and the country’s peak demand. A solution, they say, is to increase the capacity of supply by new investment and reduce the peak demand of consumers.
Supply Problem
The cause of this is mainly because of a difference between consumers’ consumption needs and Eskom’s ability to supply sufficient power.
Operational capacity has to be increased together with the ability to run it over sustained periods, which means the supply of power will have to be increased. This, say the researchers, depends upon technical maintenance requirements that must be done regularly. It also needs more coal.
According to the SA Department of Energy’s The South African Energy Sector Report 2019, South Africa’s coal deposits are quite shallow, with thick seams, and therefore easy and cheap to mine, and there are more than 50 years of coal supply left.
Despite South Africa’s commitment to net-zero by 2050 (which includes a commitment to increasing renewable energy substantially by 2030), the report states that the country’s dependency on coal-based energy is unlikely to change significantly by 2039! This, it says, is because of “the relative lack of suitable alternatives to coal.”
In what could be seen as a contradictory statement the Government report also states that by 2030, “at least 95% of the population will have access to grid or off-grid electricity.”
The renewable energy argument aside, the load shedding researchers found that there is a constraint on production that is caused by both the quantity and quality of coal supplies to Eskom.
They don’t say this, but surely this is a strong argument for renewable energy?
Loadshedding – The latest News
Eskom to push ahead with maintenance despite load-shedding
The utility says load-shedding is unacceptable but maintenance must continue
15 March 2021 – 14:44 Lisa Steyn
Eskom will not compromise on its long-term maintenance efforts, despite the heightened risk of load-shedding, which has gripped the country.
At an Eskom state of the system briefing on Monday, Eskom COO Jan Oberholzer, said that while everyday of load-shedding was “unacceptable”, the utility remains committed to its reliability maintenance and mid-life refurbishment programme, which is expected to improve the operational performance of its fleet of power stations. ..
READ MORE…
Heavy loadshedding this winter possible if capacity is not met, Eskom warns
By Zintle Mahlati
Johannesburg – South Africans should brace themselves for a possibility of up to 26 days of load shedding this winter if Eskom’s power supply capacity is hampered by faults and breakdowns.
Eskom executives did their best to paint a hopeful picture of the entity’s attempts to improve its maintenance at its power stations in order to keep supply on path with demand. But there are worries.
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