Will SA’s Low Emission Energy Development Strategy for Nett Zero Emissions by 2050 Succeed?

Energy! The first phase, Starting Right, is already behind schedule. It seems that the SETs and other plans may only be developed later this year. 

Updated Climate Plan

On 24 March 2021, Cabinet approved an updated draft NDC for public comment. It has been widely criticized for not being ambitious enough and falling short of its ability to meet the 2050 net zero emissions goals.

A consultation process on the updated climate plan will run until the end of May. The final document will be submitted to the United Nations (UN) before the UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) to be hosted by the UK in Glasgow between 11 and 12 November 2021. 

Meanwhile, on 31 March 2021, Gwede Mantashe, the Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy attended a summit also hosted by the UK. Its focus was to consider the challenges and priorities for implementing the Paris Climate Agreement and Agenda 2030 for sustainable development in countries that are most vulnerable to climate change. 

There is no argument that South Africa is one of these countries.

We Can Expect a Long Journey

Reiterating that the country’s energy transition will be “a journey,” he said it wouldn’t be the stroke of a pen that would switch off coal power stations and implement the move to renewables. 

Clearly cognisant of the fact that the first phase of the so-called just energy transition is lagging, he said:

“We are not putting up excuses not to do things because there’s a Covid-19 pandemic.” 

Mantashe has consistently maintained that the move to net zero emissions must be gradual. He also favours both “clean coal” and nuclear energy, stating that a significant role should be maintained for both. In Parliament this week he said nuclear energy from Koeberg was critical to the supply of energy in South Africa. 

Nuclear energy is mentioned once in the low emission development strategy document, in the illustration above that shows the transformation of the electricity supply sector to 2030. 

The document does note the need for cleaner coal technologies in the context of the NDP 2030 and the need for a just transition to a low-carbon economy. 

The South African Dilemma

The question remains, will South Africa’s Low Emission Development Strategy for net zero emissions succeed? Will the goals set by the strategy be met by 2050?

The dilemma is that politicians say things but often don’t follow through. So how much faith can we have in the South African promise to reach a net zero economy by 2050?

The IRP outlines a shift from coal to renewable energy sources. But it retains fossil fuel as part of the plan until beyond 2030 with coal continuing to play a dominant role in the country’s energy mix. Even though the plan states that it aims for net zero by 2050, it is highly unlikely to happen. 

There is also the issue of job losses when and if the Government decommissions coal power stations. This is why the long-term low-emissions development strategy aims at a just energy transition.  

Ultimately, South Africa has the ideal climatic conditions for wind and solar as well as other forms of renewable energy. We don’t need to pollute the earth or put people’s lives in jeopardy by continuing to mine coal. 

We will be keeping track of the South African Government’s attempts to reach its 2050 commitment. Watch this space!